§  Do you think a tax on condoms can really change birth rates.?

§  New 2026 Policy

§  China imposes a 13% tax on condoms while making childcare tax-free to fight its birth rate crisis

§  Will it work or backfire.? Read the full analysis

Beijing, China: As the world rings in 2026, Chinese citizens are waking up to a new reality in their bedrooms. In a controversial move to reverse its plummeting birth rate, the Chinese government has officially imposed a 13% sales tax on contraceptives, including condoms and birth control pills, effective January 1.

Simultaneously, Beijing has eliminated Value Added Tax (VAT) on childcare services, marriage-related businesses and elderly care. This “carrot and stick” approach marks a drastic shift from decades of population control to a desperate scramble for babies.

The Details: What Changed Overnight.?

An overhaul of the tax system, announced late last year has removed exemptions that had been in place since 1994—an era when China was strictly enforcing its infamous one-child policy. Back then, contraceptives were tax-free to discourage births. Now, the tables have turned.

·       Taxed: Condoms, contraceptive pills, intrauterine devices (13% VAT).

·       Tax-Free: Childcare services, kindergartens, matchmaking agencies, nursing homes.

This policy is part of a broader “birth-boosting” package that includes extended parental leave and direct cash handouts to families in some provinces.

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Why Now.? The Numbers Don’t Lie

Beijing is facing a demographic emergency. Official data shows China’s population has shrunk for three consecutive years. In 2024, only 9.54 million babies were born—roughly half the number recorded just a decade ago.

With an aging workforce and a sluggish economy, the government is trying everything to encourage young people to marry and procreate. However, experts warn that financial tweaks may not be enough.

Public Reaction: “Overthinking It.?”

The new tax has sparked immediate backlash and ridicule on Chinese social media platforms like Weibo.

“I’ll buy a lifetime’s worth of condoms now,” joked one user before the price hike kicked in.

Another netizen pointed out the obvious flaw: “People can tell the difference between the price of a condom (a few yuan) and the price of raising a child (millions).”

Daniel Luo, a 36-year-old father from Henan, dismissed the impact. “It’s like a subway fare hike. People won’t change their habits over a few extra yuan. A box of condoms costing 10 or 20 yuan more is annoying but it won’t force me to have another child. I have one and I don’t want any more.”

However, for students and low-income workers, the hike is no joke. Rosy Zhao from Xi’an worries that making contraception expensive could lead to risky behavior, unwanted pregnancies or a rise in HIV rates—a potential “dangerous outcome” of the policy.

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Impact Analysis: The Real Barrier is Cost, Not Condoms

According to a 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute, China is one of the most expensive places in the world to raise a child relative to GDP.

·       High Education Costs: Intense academic competition drives up school fees.

·       Work-Life Imbalance: Women face significant penalties in their careers for taking maternity leave.

·       Economic Uncertainty: A property crisis has eroded family savings, making young couples risk-averse.

Demographer Yi Fuxian calls the condom tax strategy “overthinking it,” suggesting it’s more about Beijing scraping for tax revenue amid a debt crisis than actually believing it will spark a baby boom.

Conclusion

China’s leadership is fighting a battle against modern social shifts that are not unique to the region—South Korea and Japan are facing similar crises. But by making “not having babies” slightly more expensive, Beijing risks alienating the very youth it needs to win over. As Daniel Luo puts it, “Young people are just exhausted.”

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